A new industry strategy published by Poland's Wind Energy Association (PSEW), developed in partnership with the Wind Industry Hub and CEE Energy Group, maps out what the country's onshore wind market could look like by 2040. The headline figure: PLN 214 billion — more than €50 billion — in total market value, combining capital investment and ongoing operational spending over the next 14 years.
The prerequisite is consistent policy and a steady pipeline of new projects. The strategy's target scenario requires Poland to maintain 1.5–2 gigawatts of new capacity per year, reaching a cumulative total of 34 GW by 2040. Annual investment and operational spending would peak at PLN 17 billion — making onshore wind one of the most significant sustained capital flows in the Polish economy, generating tens of thousands of jobs throughout a deep domestic supply chain.
Polish companies are in a stronger supply-chain position than most EU wind markets. They hold 70–90% of engineering, procurement, and construction contracts — from site preparation and grid connection to civil works and turbine installation. Operations and maintenance tell a similar story: Polish firms dominate.
The problem is at the top of the value chain. Turbines — the machines themselves — are almost entirely foreign-made. Polish companies hold around 25% of the turbine supply chain. That means the biggest-ticket component, and the one with the highest technology content, currently flows to Danish, German, and Spanish manufacturers. Closing that gap is the central strategic challenge identified in the PSEW report.
Poland is not building in isolation. WindEurope's recent analysis of five EU countries fast-tracking onshore wind shows Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia all accelerating following Russia's energy shock. Germany added more than 4 GW of onshore wind last year — more than double any other EU country. EU-wide, onshore capacity is expected to reach 304 GW by 2030.
For Poland, the acceleration became physically possible only after the Sejm amended its wind farm distance rules, cutting the mandatory setback from 700 metres to 500 metres. The effect was substantial: available land for wind investment grew from 0.28% of Polish territory to more than 7% — a 25-fold increase. Without that change, the 34 GW target was simply not buildable.
The combination of reformed rules, a coherent industry strategy, and growing EU demand for domestically produced renewable energy puts Poland in a stronger position than at any point in its wind energy build-out. The turbine gap is the constraint that matters most. If Poland wants to be a manufacturing hub rather than a well-run construction and operations market, it needs either to attract major turbine production investment or to back Polish firms in developing the technology. The market is large enough — and European competition for it fierce enough — that the window for that decision is not unlimited.
