Six of the EU's biggest net payers have told their partners they will not agree the next seven-year budget as it stands. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Finland and Sweden want "several hundred billion euros" taken out of the Commission's proposal for 2028–2034, according to a letter dated 28 September.
The signatories are German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker and prime ministers Mette Frederiksen, Rob Jetten, Petteri Orpo and Ulf Kristersson. They wrote to Ireland, which holds the rotating Council presidency and chairs the talks. Their verdict on the Commission's plan: it is "simply not realistic".
The Commission is asking for about €1.9 trillion over seven years. The current 2021–27 budget is roughly €1.2 trillion.
The six do not only want a lower number. They want the budget rebuilt around "common investment in security and defence, competitiveness, innovation and the fight against irregular migration". The subtext is a fight over the older spending lines that would have to shrink to pay for the newer priorities.
They carry weight. Together the six account for nearly 40% of member-state contributions to the EU budget, by the Irish Times' count.
Leaders face another hurdle even if they strike a deal by the end of the year, which currently looks improbable. The European Parliament must consent to the budget. That takes 361 MEPs. Johan Van Overtveldt, who chairs Parliament's budgets committee, has warned that its consent "can really not be taken for granted".
Parliament has never voted down a budget compromise agreed by leaders. "There has to be a first time for everything," Van Overtveldt said. MEPs and diplomats are already counting votes in a fragmented chamber.
The Irish presidency is due to table a negotiating proposal within about two weeks. The current budget runs out at the end of 2027, so the pressure builds slowly rather than all at once. That favours the side that can wait.
The letter reads as an opening bid, and a public one. Six capitals that pay most of the bill have set a ceiling before the real haggling starts, and they have tied it to the priorities they say voters care about. Recipient countries and the Commission will now argue that cuts of that size gut cohesion and farm money. Parliament adds a second veto player that no letter from national leaders can bind. Watch the Irish presidency's proposal: it will show how far the six have moved the centre of the talks.
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