In 2021, North Macedonia scored higher than Albania on the European Commission's own scorecard. Five years later it trails by 1.2 points, and the reason is not a lack of paperwork.
The Integration Readiness Index (readinessindex.eu) was published in June 2026 by the European Policy Innovation Council (EPIC), co-published with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation and written by Antonios Nestoras, Emil Kirjas and Bernada Cunj. It scores ten candidate countries from 0 to 10 for each year from 2021 to 2025, using only the Commission's annual progress reports. The benchmark is Croatia in 2011, the last country to finish accession, which scores between 8.8 and 9.2.
North Macedonia's line is nearly flat: 5.3 in 2021, 5.6 in 2022, 5.2 in 2023, 5.4 in 2024 and 5.5 in 2025. Albania climbed from 5.1 to 6.7 over the same period, and Montenegro from 5.5 to 6.8. Serbia slipped from 5.6 to 5.5. Skopje started ahead of Albania and ended well behind it.
The five indicators behind the 2025 score tell the story. State of Play is 5.7, Annual Progress 5.1, Recommendation Delivery 5.0, Chapter Status 6.6 and Accession Momentum 4.6. Chapter Status is the highest because screening, the technical review of the acquis, was completed in December 2023. Momentum is the lowest because nothing has been opened or closed since.
EPIC traces the pattern to a procedural breakthrough in 2022, when the first intergovernmental conference launched the talks, followed by a slide in 2023. That year the Commission criticised Criminal Code amendments that reduced penalties for corruption offences, and the score fell to 5.2. Rule-of-law delivery has recovered only partly since. The authors conclude that stagnation is "structural rather than cyclical."
The 2025 progress report, as EPIC reads it, notes the absence of any attempt to adopt the constitutional amendments the negotiating framework demands. Those changes would add Bulgarians to the communities named in North Macedonia's constitution, a condition tied to its dispute with Bulgaria. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski said in May 2026 that his government would not agree to constitutional changes under current conditions, even if that delays accession.
This week shows how far apart the candidates now are. Montenegro provisionally closed three more chapters on Monday, taking it to 21 of 33. On 28 October, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos is due to name a target completion date for each frontrunner: Ukraine, Moldova, Albania and Montenegro. North Macedonia is not among the four.
The index measures what the Commission has written down, not what governments intend, and it makes no forecast. But it makes one point plainly. Technical readiness does not move a candidate forward if the political conditions are unresolved. The next data point will come when the Commission publishes its autumn progress reports.
